Entry Name:? "ISU-Hofmann-MC2"

VAST Challenge 2015
Mini-Challenge 2

Team Members:

Heike Hofmann, Iowa State University, hofmann@iastate.edu?? PRIMARY

Dianne Cook, Iowa State University, dicook@iastate.edu

Eric Hare, Iowa State University, erichare@iastate.edu

Andee Kaplan, Iowa State University, ajkaplan@iastate.edu

Vianey Leos-Barajas, Iowa State University, vianey@iastate.edu
Carson Sievert, Iowa State University, sievert@iastate.edu

Samantha Tyner, Iowa State University, sctyner@iastate.edu

Student Team: NO

Did you use data from both mini-challenges? We only used the data from MC2 for the analysis below, but refer to results from the other challenges.

Analytic Tools Used:

R

Approximately how many hours were spent working on this submission in total?

Too many 8pm to midnight sessions, but it was a fun challenge, so thank you!

May we post your submission in the Visual Analytics Benchmark Repository after VAST Challenge 2015 is complete? YES

Video Download

Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUNK25thPYY

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Questions

MC2.1 – Identify those IDs that stand out for their large volumes of communication.? For each of these IDs

a. Characterize the communication patterns you see.

b. Based on these patterns, what do you hypothesize about these IDs?

Limit your response to no more than 4 images and 300 words.

Two IDs are notable for their large volume of messages: 1278894 and 839736. These IDs are responsible for almost 80% of the message volume. Both these ids are stationary, sending messages from the Entry Corridor only.

During the even hours between noon and 8 pm the id 1278894 sends out messages at intervals of 5 minutes to more than a quarter of all park goers.

There are no other messages from this id besides the ones exactly at the top of every 5 minutes. Judging from the large number of messages and the relatively low percentage of recipients this looks like an opt-in service.
Interestingly, almost all of the recipients quickly respond to each of the messages sent by id 1278894. One potential scenario that we can think of is that the id is used for a (park-related?) trivia(?)? game to entertain park goers (while they wait in the very long lines).

Id 839736 on the other hand, has a lot more recipients: on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, respectively, messages to 2527, 4462, and 5682 different recipients go out from this id; this corresponds to 85% of park goers on Friday and Saturday, while corresponding with almost 95% on Sunday. Every single one of these messages seems to be solicited by a previous message from the recipient to 839736, indicating that this id constitutes an information service provided by the park.

Obviously, the number is also used as a problem go-to number. On Friday morning, when there is a problem with the Galactosaurus ride, we see an increase of messages sent to this number from Coaster Alley; on Sunday the service is heavily used: a first huge peak consists of messages from the wetland at noon, when the vandalism is discovered, and a second, smaller peak between 2:30 and 3, consisting of messages from Coaster Alley (where the second, cancelled Scott Jones show was scheduled). After the vandalism is discovered from 12 to about 3:30 the number of messages to and from this id is increased by more than tenfold to about 150 messages a minute.

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MC2.2 – Describe up to 10 communications patterns in the data. Characterize who is communicating, with whom, when and where. If you have more than 10 patterns to report, please prioritize those patterns that are most likely to relate to the crime.

Limit your response to no more than 10 images and 1000 words.

The network above shows the communications between the three suspects 416790, 461004, and 1502920 and the other members of their group. Linewidth corresponds to the number of meesages going forth and back between the ids. Most messages go from the three suspects to the problem go-to number of the park, id 839736.

MC2.3 – From this data, can you hypothesize when the crime was discovered?? Describe your rationale.

Limit your response to no more than 3 images and 300 words.?

The plot below shows the number of messages originated from the Wet Land area on Sunday. The peak around noon actually consists of two peaks: the first one occurs around 11:30 - 11:45 and shows a slow increase followed by a decrease, the second peak happens right at noon spiking to over 2,500 messages right away, followed by a gradual decline. Looking closer, the second peak is made up predominantly by messages to the park service id 839736. This is actually followed by a huge spike in messages to external recipients just before (from 11:45 - 12:00). This suggests, that the vandalism was discovered at 11:45 in the Wet Land area (when the Creighton Pavilion re-opened after the Scott Jones show), while the messages to 839736 are likely a result of the closure of Creighton for the day. The first spike, from 11:30 to 11:45 is curious, but seems unrelated to vandalism.